Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Bought Nanosphere, Inc.

Today, I picked up some Nanosphere, Inc. (Ticker: NSPH) at $1.31 (~8% position). This company is being acquired by Luminex (Ticker: LMNX) for $1.35 in cash via a tender offer. This deal should close quickly and I have modeled a close by June 30th. I will be looking at a potential net gain of 3.05% (~24% annualized return) if this deal closes by the end of June.

50 Comments:

At May 23, 2016, Blogger lamano said...

Well, todays news is a nice surprise :)

Unfortunately I only got part of my target position filled (only 1.5% portfolio)..but I will take it...

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They increased the purchase offer to $1.7. Is it still supposed to close before end of 2nd quarter? Is it possible there will be a bidding war? (Market price does not suggest that it could go be bid higher)

 
At May 23, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

Yes, this deal should still close by the end of Q2. I don't know about a bidding war, but anything is possible... This definitely was a surprise and I didn't expect this nice bump in price.

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm thinking to go long 100% with my capitals on nsph, for a 3 cents profits, or a bidding war. When do you expect to close the deal? I'm entering to 1.67 right now.

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

may be we can get a final 1.90/2.00 ...

 
At May 23, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I've been modeling a close by June 30th.

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I need help! urgently. This is a small cap, so If I invest let's say 1.000.000 USD I'm like a 4% or more stakeholder.
Where can I see which are the limits I should not pass to do not need to decleare this? I wouldn't finish in some trouble, which is the max % of the company I can buy to avoid some sort of reporting?

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For now I just bought 200.000 shares, that should be over 1.25% of the company. Please let me know.

 
At May 23, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I believe the threshold is 5% in which you are required to make a filing with the SEC.

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

thank you very much perfect

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

do you know from some document how many shares there are of NSPH to calculate at least a 2% stake?

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

according to http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NSPH+Key+Statistics
there are 13.54 Mil shares outstanding. 5% would be 677,000 shares. $1,000,000 won't buy you 5%. 2% would be 270,800 shares.
However, why would you put all you got into this? Are you 100% absolutely sure the deal will close without a problem. Sometimes things happen. Why bet the ranch?
MT has so many ideas on the table now, why not diversify?

 
At May 23, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

From the merger agreement:

As of the close of business on May 13, 2016, there were (i) 13,544,248 issued and outstanding shares of Company Common Stock...

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

as trader I feel it, and this is even not marginable stock, I feel we will get a higher proposal.

About other, QIHU went up, I think we can monitor now IM in the next days and weeks is moving something.

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I decided to go with max 20/25% position.
Why do you exepect a close in 5 weeks, is this a tender offer? faster? or what?

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think a lot of people still have to read about the raise of price and the news of today, so in few days the price will stabilize at 1.69/1.70 however for a free bet to an higher bid even if just 1.80... will be a lot. Specially if the deal close very soon like in less of 2 months.

 
At May 23, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

Yes, this deal is structured as a tender offer so it should close quickly.

 
At May 23, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

IM is going up strong... 2.4% today, HSR is due 6 june, and there is mofcom after that soon, and special meeting, can be the deal will close soon..? max end of june or july? the yeld is still 12.5% now!

 
At May 23, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

With IM, I think it’s going to take some time to close. This deal needs approval from several foreign countries and then the China regulators, which tend to take their time. If all goes well maybe a close in mid-late Q3, my best guestimate…

Each party’s obligation to complete the merger is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain conditions, including the following:

• the receipt of the Ingram Micro stockholder approval;

• the receipt of the Tianjin Tianhai shareholder approval (unless the HNA Group assumption has occurred pursuant to the guarantee);

• the absence of any restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction or other order issued by any court of competent jurisdiction or other legal restraint or prohibition preventing the consummation of the merger (an “order”);

• the expiration or termination of the waiting period under U.S. antitrust laws and the receipt of any consents or approvals required under the competition laws of the European Union, Canada, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, the PRC, India, Switzerland and Turkey;

• the receipt of PRC approvals, including approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM and SAFE;

• the receipt of the SHSE clearance (unless the HNA Group assumption has occurred pursuant to the guarantee); and

• in the event of any review or investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS”) applicable to the transactions contemplated by the merger agreement, the conclusion of such CFIUS review or investigation, and (x) CFIUS’s determination that there are no unresolved national security concerns with respect to the transactions contemplated by the merger agreement, or (y) the President of the United States has declined to take any action to suspend or prohibit the transactions.

 
At May 24, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

sold some at 1.68 today that I bought yesterday in close at 1.65 and 1.66!!! still holding 300.000, finger crossed for an higher bid! let's wait a week... max

 
At May 24, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

IM up another 2% today, they are buying aggressively, 4.5% in 2 days........ we missed the trend

 
At May 24, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there any news on SPA?

 
At May 24, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NSPH 1.69 bid in after hours! Looks good! let's hope really in a final bid from who offered 1.50... would be nice to see just 1 or 2 shots more :))

 
At May 24, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

SPA will present to potential buyers in July. Thinking of getting back in at some point.

Was trying to get some NSPH at $1.66, but the price never got there...

 
At May 25, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

not yesterday close but the day before went to 1.65 in close! so you could fill 1.66, imagine that for unluck I had some order to 1.65 with tack profit at 1.66 and I sold it to 1.66.... but I would keep for 1.67 at least. But it's ok.

 
At May 25, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

do you still have the original position on NSPH? or you was out before the price increase to 1.70?

 
At May 25, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I still have my original position in NSPH. I was looking to add to it...

 
At May 25, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,
The amount of rumors for MDVN ranges from AMGN, GILD, CELG, PFE, AZN, SNY at many different sites including Bloomberg, Reuters, Streetinsider, Benzinga. What do you make of it? is the MDVN bankers trying to make SNY increase it bid or there might be interest in it.
I am still holding it more than 20% portfolio
Aapltrader

 
At May 26, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

MDVN bankers are basically doing their job of trying to get the best offer. SNY obviously needs to bump their price, yet it does not want to bid against itself. Now it looks like there are several viable bidders so I can see SNY bumping their price shortly.

 
At May 26, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

why hasnt MDVN announced a formal sale process yet?

 
At May 26, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

MDVN may not have formally announced, but their actions indicate that they are for sale at the right price. Just have to be patient with these types of plays.

 
At May 27, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NSPH 1.70 in bid!!!! touched 1.71!!

 
At May 27, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

The WSJ has a good write up about Sanofi's strategy in acquiring MDVN:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/05/27/dealpolitik-medivations-just-say-no-strategy-may-be-in-trouble/

 
At May 27, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,
I am trying to get a hang of whole b/o process so please be patient with me regarding MDVN..
1. Wouldn't the MDVN bankers contact potential buyers directly instead of passing rumors through different website/sources? Or the theory is if they spread rumor of big guns like PFE then smaller ones than PFE like AMGN/GILD would jump in?
2. I had the same feeling as the previous reader regarding the auction process. Since the board have been advised by Evercore and JP Morgan wouldn't they knew when SNY went public with the bid that their defense is weak and they will eventually have to formally announce a sale. Why risk letting the company's fate be decided by SNY board/MDVN shareholders then by the current BOD? Since SNY needs 50.01% shareholders to replace the board, now they are running against time?
I bought more today and will hold for some time even if b/o does not happen since there aren't many MDVN.
3. Also what do you think of RLYP. I have been watching for some time and today their competition AZN received CRL, they pretty much have the market and looks like shorts are controlling the stock since the company needs to prove there is a market for hyperkalemia.
Thanks
Aapltrader
Thanks

 
At May 27, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I can see some parallels with the Medivation and Genzyme takeover. With Genzyme, the company did not officially announce a sale process, yet it reached out to other companies to gauge their interest before agreeing to a deal with Sanofi. It didn't quite work out for Genzyme as no other companies made binding offers. Sanofi played their hands perfectly with Genzyme.

I wish I know what Medivation's though process is right now. They are running out of time as Sanofi is taking action to replace their board. It's just a matter of time before they are forced to sit down with Sanofi.

Regarding AZN's CRL - I see it as a minor set back for AZN. The CRL is specific to the observations made during the pre-approval inspection. It looks like the FDA was not satisfied in the companies response to the observations. The company should be able to address the manufacturing observations quickly. These are fixable issues as opposed to an efficacy issue with a drug.

 
At May 31, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You look at ANAC at all? Feels like there is some non-zero chance of an overbid (at least that's what market is suggesting) - maybe AGN?

 
At May 31, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I scalp ANAC aggressively, if you can make a study and you see something here let me know... I try to limit the short since few days news. But... I see few chances of bid war here. I leave you americans to help us to understand better what is ANAC.

 
At May 31, 2016, Blogger Eric L said...

any thoughts on XUE? trading like DATE was before it closed

 
At May 31, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ANAC deal will close mid june? it's a tender offer, do you see any chance it will delay after end of june? if it is so few days can worth to buy below 99.25 for a free bet, but I don't think that we can see an higher bid, look likes in mid june it is gone..

 
At May 31, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

The market certainly thinks that there a small chance of a bump in price for ANAC. The names mentioned have been Novartis and Allergan. It may be one of those lottery tickets if you can get it around $99.25 and hope for a bump in price. This is a tender offer and is scheduled to expire June 23rd. I’m not playing it…

Regarding XUE, I have not followed that one...

 
At June 01, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

do you think will really expire so early? no HSR or other regulator approval needed?

 
At June 01, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

Yes, a tender offer cab be completed this early. PFE will require HSR approval prior to closing of the tender offer. If additional info is required, they will extend the tender in 2 week increments until all conditions has been satisfied.

 
At June 01, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...


Hi MT,

I noticed WGBS has been drifting downward this week. Are you still adding to your position? Are you planning to allocate a significant part of your portfolio to this? Do you think it most likely to go through?
What concerns me is that the market seems to be pricing in either big risk, or perhaps uncertainty of getting the price you are predicting.
Obviously if in fact the deal is likely to go through and at price around $1.50 this would be a screaming buy.
Do you have any new thoughts on this?

Thanks

 
At June 01, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

Regarding WGBS, I was adding prior to this recent run up and currently have ~8% position. Obviously, I think they will meet their milestone of $12 to 13 million. The next quarterly report will be important in evaluating if they are able to meet their revenue forecast. This one is volatile because it’s essentially a penny stock and all institutions stay away from these low price stocks. It doesn’t take much at all to move it.

 
At June 01, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

with ALR news today, does the deal go through?

 
At June 01, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I'm still skeptical of ALR. Just feels like Abbott is hoping to find a way to get out of this deal.

 
At June 01, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MDVN set today as a record date to vote for shareholder consent. Isn't it really bold move by MDVN? Maybe they have a bid in hand.

 
At June 01, 2016, Blogger Eric L said...

any thought on TAOM? closing soon?

 
At June 02, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

MDVN - I've heard that by having an early record date may prevent arbs from having a larger influence. I don't know if I buy that theory. I do see SNY bumping the price soon.

TAOM - I don't see any hints of it closing soon. It should eventually close, but when??? Kind of like QIHU...

 
At June 03, 2016, Anonymous Sue-Ann said...

24% is not bad at all.

 

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