Thursday, April 28, 2016

DreamWorks, Medivation and Sparton

Wow, just when I thought M&A activity would diminish this year, we have a nice uptick just this week.

First we have Comcast Corp. (Ticker: CMCSA) acquiring DreamWorks Animation (Ticker: DWA) for $41.00 in cash. I initiated ~ 3% position at $31.57 yesterday based on the chatter over the weekend. I definitely didn’t expect a deal to materialize this quickly, but I’ll take it…

Next we have Medivation (Ticker: MDVN), which is being stalked by Sanofi. It definitely looks like Sanofi (Ticker: SNY) is prepping to go hostile on Medivation. I currently have a ~ 5% position at $49.82. I do believe that Sanofi will ultimately get Medivation, which will fit nicely with Sanofi’s Genzyme division.

Finally, I initiated a small position (~2%) in Sparton (Ticker: SPA) at $21.70. This small cap defense company is evaluating strategic alternatives of its biz and has decided to put itself up for sale. If a bid materializes, I can see this company gets taken out in the 30’s. If no bid, the company valuation is cheap with limited downside and should do fine over time.

EDIT: I took my profits in Medivation today at $56.36 generating a net gain of 13.10% over a 15 day period.

Wait, I changed my mind... I'm back in at $56.28...

33 Comments:

At April 28, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

why don't you post those trades before you do it? too easy to tell after it is done. How to believe you?? I don't like this. No sense.

 
At April 28, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

This blog is a diary for me to track my trades. Not for others to mimic... Thanks.

 
At April 28, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

so don't report your performances... if you want to show up your performances do not have sense to just comment with us here small positions in risk arb and then, the one where you make the most of the profit not, because just make upset, is not fair! nobody wants to mimic. Are risky trade the one pre-merger like every investment, so I don't understand why to come here and say "I made a 30% and I close position" when nobody can be interested in such comment. Keep private then, or have no sense to follow you if you don't even comment risk arb where you are in and enjoy here to close positions with 30% profit never mentioned! at least you could write you was following something. Otherwise tomorrow I open a blog and I write I was short on APPLE and I closed position yesterday with 10% profit!!!! what sense have this? everybody can be good on this then. I hope you will change, or I will forget this blog, too upset.

 
At April 28, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

you wrote on MDVN even not interested anymore in the trade or risk arb. what a joke, we are here to exchange ideas on risk arbs and similar, and you come here and says no I'm not interested even in MDVN because I already did 30% and I closed it. It's like to split on our or your meal. Of course if we are able all to earn pre-merger this will happen, but there is a way to describe your private trades, and I repeat, too easy to say to have just closed a trade never mentioned. It's not fair, and I'm not interested to know like each other person, because we can't verify this and it's not usefull just to read such post. We lose our time for something not interesting at all, in a day we come here to look and ask much better comments about a deal, that is usefull, to discuss on something for the present and the future, not mistery past trades never mentioned. Hope really you will do better and understand!!!! if you was like us just to read you would be disappointed.

 
At April 28, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have been following your diary for about decade now. It's always been interesting and fun to read about your successful and the not so successful trade performances. You certainly have done a lot of research on your own. No wonder many of your readers, such as myself, have been asking your opinion about some trades that you might have been quietly following and doing research.

Thank you for taking time sharing your thoughts and also your performances. It has been helpful to me in observing your analyses although sometimes we don't happen to make the same acquisition. Will continue to follow your diary/blog!

 
At April 28, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

Thanks... I will take into account everyone's feedback and tweak things as needed. Both positive and negative feedback is appreciated...

 
At April 28, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just do what you like. this is your own blog. Readers come and go too.

As your long term reader, your entries have consistently been what your so-called diary, recording your trades, not about selling your trading tricks.

Good luck in your trades! Personally feel you got back in a little too early for MDVN today, but then who would know right?

 
At April 28, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Long time reader , I like reading your blog and has made me better investor. I think some readers need to learn to start making their decision instead on relying on other people/ blog/ investment gurus.

Plus the site is FREE and inputs you provide are invaluable

At least MT reports his loss like ALR and wins together, which u won't find lot with other sites...

Keep up the good work...
Aapltrader

 
At April 28, 2016, Anonymous mergerpie said...

Any thoughts on DWA? Antitrust issues or safe closing? Thanks!

 
At April 29, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I don't see any antitrust issues with DWA. The closing should go rather smoothly. I'm planning on hanging onto my position to closing.

 
At April 29, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

how long will take the DWA deal to close?

 
At April 29, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ALR reported or will report today the earnings?

 
At April 29, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

DWA - I would model a close in early Q4 (October). The company simply stated that they intend to close by the end of the year.

ALR - I believe they are scheduled to release earnings in early May. I haven't been following ALR since I closed out my position.

 
At April 29, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

what about FCS? why they are delaying to 12 may? many times there are drops to 19.75/85 area, do you see a buy opportunity there?

 
At April 29, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I have not been following FCS...

 
At May 02, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,

What are your thoughts on DATE and QIHU? They were expected to close by the end of April. The prices have been drifting a bit down. Have you seen any chatter on these? Do you have an updated expected closing date? Do you see any risks?

Thank You - your insights are always appreicated

 
At May 02, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any news on drop of SPA? Thank You.

 
At May 02, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

Should hear something on DATE today. QIHU - I would give it another week or two.

SPA - It's a thin float so just a few shares will cause the price to drop. I would give this one a few months to play out. I can see a defense company taking this one out.

 
At May 02, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

APOL huge yeld, they revised to 10$ the offer. Why so high spread here? can be opportunity?

how do you get 1/2 weeks close for QIHU?

 
At May 02, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I suppose when you write "Should hear something on DATE today", you mean something positive. Why do you think it is down today?

 
At May 02, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

DATE: In the last PR the company stated that they expect to complete the merger on 4/30, which is the long-stop date. People were probably anticipating to hear something prior to the open and are bit nervous as this drags out a bit. We’ll likely hear something after the market close. I do expect this deal to be completed…

 
At May 03, 2016, Anonymous mergerpie said...

about QIHU some Chinese sources said there are delays due to forex conversion issues but other than tat all is clear.

http://tech.qq.com/a/20160428/010954.htm

 
At May 03, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

DATE filed a FORM 12b-25, NOTIFICATION OF LATE FILING
Not sure what impact this has on the deal. Here is the link:
http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20160503/AWA2UG2D8C224ZZU222S2ZZZQ2BTR2W2Z282/

"Jiayuan.com International Ltd. (the “Company”) was not able to file its annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 on or before the prescribed filing deadline of May 2, 2016 because the Company was unable to finish preparing and reviewing its annual report on Form 20-F by the prescribed filing deadline without unreasonable effort or expense. The Company expects that it will file its annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 on or before fifteen-day extension period."

 
At May 03, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

The non filing of the annual report should not have any impact on the merger.

 
At May 05, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TUMI have not declared earnings yesteday, news about it? why silence?

 
At May 05, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

qihu falling down, news? -1.5%

 
At May 05, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I couldn't find anything on QIHU. The decline is concerning. I closed out my short Put positions in QIHU.

 
At May 05, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

tumi earnings? no news, another ALR??

 
At May 05, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TUMI will do like QIHY sell off... can somebody confirm that yesterday they didn't reported the earnings to the market? like ALR... the same, something is going on there too, I think we will see by end of the day a sell off here too.

 
At May 05, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

All of the China going private plays are selling off today based on new proposed rules on relisting. That’s the word that’s going around…

TUMI shouldn't be affected...

 
At May 06, 2016, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ok but TUMI should report earnings and didn't... it's very dangerous too! no news about it, exactly like ALR. Of we know business of TUMI is so different from biotech but... if you can find some info about it, if I write to IR I will wait days.

About QIHU I think however somebody was already aware of the sell off of china index today of 2.5%+ so that is other fuel. About relisting rules, how they can be so bad? may be is not that, for sure they are waiting now another bearish wave on China and U.S. indexes. I was waiting me too this to enter on the sell off of the market in some risk arb play that could be exactly affected from a china sell off, like Qihu, YY, IM, LXK etc etc we will see. Seem real hard period this, nothing easy.

 
At May 06, 2016, Blogger Money Turtle said...

TUMI reported earnings on 5/5 check out their website:

http://www.tumi.com/s/investor-relations

I'm out of China plays for now...

 
At June 03, 2016, Anonymous Sue-Ann said...

That's a nice profit over just 15 days.

 

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