Keurig Green Mountain = Done Deal
JAB announced the closing of Keurig Green Mountain this morning. This position made up ~ 30% of my portfolio with a good chunk of common and Short Puts. I was able to generate a net gain of 2.32% (annualized gain of ~ 30% assuming the cash hits my account by 03/11). I was pleased on how smoothly this arb position played out. I took advantage of yesterday’s volatility as the weak hands got shaken out on one of those pre-closing rumors.
posted by Money Turtle @ 11:25 AM
24 comments
24 Comments:
I would like a view about the risk on TUMI by samsonite, is it low risk deal? I like the industry, there shouldn't be regulators issues. Correct?
Also about DATE some view, if you see risks there, but this is very small deal.
I see Tumi as a fairly safe deal, which translates into an unattractive merger arb play. I would model a closing by June, which would generate a return of ~1.5% (an annualized return of ~ 4-5%).
I see DATE (Jiayuan.com) as kind of interesting and actually initiated a small position (~ 5%) last week. DATE is being acquired by Baihe for $7.51 (minus $0.05 for ADR fee). The risk is that there are no details regarding committed financing for this deal. Baihe just states that funds will be obtained from the private placement of shares or a bank loan. This deal is expected to close by March 31st and I do see a high probability that Baihe will obtain the funds to close this deal. Baihe deposited ~ $23 million with Jiayuan.com towards the deal. In May, Baihe raised ~ $241 million. The cash needed to close this deal is ~ $250 million. I believe Jiayuan.com has ~ $70 million on its books. Plus Baihe is acquiring Jiayuan.com on the cheap. This is a strategic acquisition for Baihe as this will create the largest dating site in China. I see lots of reason for Baihe to get this deal done.
thank you, so I pick up 2 interesting mergers. But what about Baihe+Jiayuan market share? together are the number one seem, can be this some issue for regulators? or online dating.. is not such industry can create issue in mergers?
Can you tell us so which are all your positions in mergers now?
also CKEC / AMC deal seem safe. Do you see issues with regulators?
also a view about APOL seem interesting this deal, do you see risks here?
I’m not concerned regarding any antitrust issues with the merger of Jiayuan and Baihe. The combined company will make up ~ 40% of the market. It’s a huge market and the barrier to entry is relatively low. You are starting to see new players coming into scene such as YY Inc. along with the more established players: Zhenai and Youyuan. There’s plenty of competition in this rapidly growing space…
ok, of course is a minor problem as industry like the Expedia Orbitz deal. ok.
And about CKEC, APOL? and FCS if go lower.
and also IM is this big risk correct? and what about YY there was an offer months ago, can we expect the same of QIHU?
I haven't looked closely at CKEC / AMC as the spread is very small. The regulators will likely take a close look at it since this will create the largest movie theater chain.
I haven't done any work on APOL and FCS.
IM does look interesting as I believe this deal will get done. I may get into this one after some more work.
YY Inc. - Just wait and see... Should hear something regarding the buyout this month.
ok so the one with few risks TUMI, DATE, CKEC volatility due to regulators, IM interesting risk/reward may be if there is a crash in chinese stocks in the next week we can try a swing trade there. The same for YY, swinf trade, or wait the news. I'm curius just about APOL now, FCS it's near the close seem.
right now they sent above 30 USD CKEC.. no spread... may be they are betting on a new bidder?
about ALR, do you see that ABT really need such business? ALR has a lot of debt and I don't see so big growth in sales in the next years. Why ABT is so attracted by such deal?
CKEC shareolder with 7.1% spoke.. go to read it..
Good news and bad news on DATE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jiayuan-enters-letter-agreement-relation-110000358.html
"Jiayuan.com International Ltd. (DATE) ("Jiayuan" or the "Company"), operator of the largest online dating platform in China, today announced that it has entered into a letter agreement (the "Letter Agreement") with LoveWorld Inc"
and
"the parties currently expect to complete the Merger on or before April 30, 2016,
which is the long-stop date under the Merger Agreement. Upon completion of the Merger"
While they are one step closer to complete the deal, the completion date seems to be later than expected.
MT - do you see April 30th as a real estimate or do you still think it will be complete in March?
Thanks
You are right that it’s good news / bad news for Jiayuan.com. There’s no way they can close this deal in March. If all goes well, this deal will close in April (the drop dead date is April 30th). Baihe has to go through a shareholder vote to proceed with the loan commitment. The vote will need to take place within 30 days so that will take you well into April. I was not expecting this at all. I took off my position today and will evaluate again after they have the loan commitment in place.
ALR will be a complimentary for for ABT. In the diagnostics, it's all about scale and ALR will bring scale to ABT's biz. I can see a good amount of cost cutting from this transaction.
TUMI 27.13 news??
I haven't been following TUMI...
TUMI was and is up to 2% above the cash price offered.
ALR down 8%, urge an immediate help! what you thing about they are not able to file yet the financials? can be this a good opportunity to enter in?
This looks more serious than I thought with the Grand Jury subpoena. I decided to move to the sidelines on this news. I closed out my short Put position. I still believe this will likely close, but there's definitely a high level of uncertainty...
I closed me also lucky at 0.40 the march and 2.75 the june... I was very small into because I was waiting for this filing... but if we knew that today was the last day I could close yesterday all my positions! luck of informations on mergers! I would like to have a better service, that worth. With real key dates of risks.
dealanalytics added in portofolio today ALERE risk arb... very strange!
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