Monday, June 06, 2022

Turning Point Therapeutics & Anaplan

The arb game is starting to get interesting once again. I really like the risk reward with Turning Point Therapeutics, which is being acquired by Bristol Myers for $76 in cash via a tender offer. Bristol Myers is good with the cash, and I really don’t see any regulatory issues with this deal. Right now this is offering a mid-teens annualized return. Lots of ways to play this via common and / or options.

I was very close to initiating a position in Anaplan last week. I got lucky in holding off as Thoma Bravo just cut its price for Anaplan to $63.75 from $66 per share in cash. I did not expect this at all. They are still targeting a close by June 30th, but this deal is getting a bit hairy. I can see a bunch of unhappy Anaplan shareholders. Will they vote Yes to the revised deal? Probably… 

I have a position in Turning Point Therapeutics and may play small with Anaplan.

Thursday, June 02, 2022

May 2022 Performance

The volatility continues as my portfolio swooned to a small loss for May, which I will take. I’ve been fortunate that my portfolio has not taken a big hit from the recent decline. The volatility of the market is a telling sign that there is a change in leadership from technology to the natural resources. The techs are really tempting down here, but the market is saying that the commodity sector is the place to be. I’m looking into scaling into some oil plays at some point.

I have not participated in any arb plays, but Twitter does look interesting. There’s lots of noise in Twitter, but I can’t see how Elon gets out of the deal. I can probably see a slight price reduction like the Tiffany acquisition by LVMH, so the deal just gets across the finish line.

I continued to sell naked Puts to generate some income. The option premiums have increased due to the market volatility, which is a positive for option sellers. Of course, I’ve become more cautious and not go in big.

So just trying to survive through this storm…


2022 Performance = -9.10% with the running monthly returns as follows:

January -0.68%

February -6.00%

March +4.89%

April -4.41%

May -2.90%