April 2018 Performance
April turned out surprisingly well considering the market volatility. The following growth stocks: Mastercard (Ticker: MA), Visa (Ticker: V) and Constellation Brands (Ticker: STZ) contributed to some positive gains for the month. The big gain came from Avexis (Ticker: AVXS), which is being acquired by Novartis (Ticker: NVS) for $218 in cash. I have a good size position in Avexis via common stock and short puts. I did get a bit overboard and the size of the position went past my comfort zone. I plan on tendering the common and letting the short Puts expire. This was one of those situations where I liked the odds and went pretty much all in. I’m hopeful the tender closes on May14th.
I’m hoping to see a few more pharma
/ biotech tender plays. It’s really been an interesting year as the majority of
my gains this year were derived from merger arb plays. My goal is to focus on
high probability merger plays and hoping to avoid any Rite-Aid like disasters
(which I had the pleasure of experiencing last year). So I’m basically taking
things slow and steady…
2018 Performance = +7.89% with the
running monthly returns as follows:
January +2.80%
January +2.80%
February +2.82%
March -0.03%
April +2.10%
posted by Money Turtle @ 10:13 PM
18 comments
18 Comments:
Hi MT,
I noticed you still haven't indicated a position in MON. The price has dipped to $124.75 which gives a greater that 2.5% return. Can I infer that you do not have enough confidence in the deal to take a position?
Your opinion is valued and appreciated.
I do like MON here. A good chunk of my buying power has been allocated in AVXS. We’ll see, I may make some adjustments to free up some buying power.
Hi MT,
A remember a couple years ago you were in Regeneron (Ticker: REGN) which you sold in January 2016 in order to raise cash for a different idea.
I have kept it on my watch list and now I noticed that it has come down substantially since then. It is now under $285, while about 1/2 year ago it was over $500.
Do you have an opinion of whether its a good buy at this price?
Thank You
REGN: I currently do not have a position, but have also been keeping an eye on it. Sales have been disappointing for their new products: Dupixent for eczema and Praluent for lowering cholesterol. The stock represents good value here, but will require some time to turn things around.
STZ: recent weakness after strong earnings is normal?
Thanks
STZ: Molson Coors (TAP) had an awful report, which dragged down the entire sector. I believe STZ is doing just fine as they gave no indication of any weakness from their earnings report.
What is MON still waiting for - US and Europe already approved, right?
Saw they got approved by Turkey today - yippee!
MON: Still waiting for US approval.
Looks like AVXS tender closed... what's next?
MON?
Current Price $125
Take over Price $128
Potential profit $3 = 2.4%
Expected Time frame?
MON: I would model best case US approval with end of May close with a base case for end of June close.
Are you selling STZ? Did you buy MON? Thank you.
Have not sold any STZ and have not bought into MON.
Not much juice left in MON...
DOJ is going to approve according to news so that's about it for almost all the spread... NXPI is the next target but i will not make it as big an investment as MON as there is still some political mine bombs that may happen...
Merger pie: You did a lot of work in MON and glad that it's going to pay off for you. I just never got into that comfort (conviction) zone with MON.
When is the MON deal expected to close?
Dear MT, Thanks! I thought it was a similar type of transaction to SYT last year so the chances of success are quite favorable. Also these kind of argi-chem companies can divest quite a lot of assets and still present a good target for the buyer..abit like mix and match..so regulatory is going to be long but ultimately successful.
I think MON will close b4 30th June pending Mexico and Canada's approval.. I have sold 40% of my position
Post a Comment
<< Home