Tuesday, May 01, 2018

April 2018 Performance

April turned out surprisingly well considering the market volatility. The following growth stocks: MasterCard (Ticker: MA), VISA (Ticker: V) and Constellation Brands (Ticker: STZ) contributed to some positive gains for the month. The big gain came from Avexis (Ticker: AVXS), which is being acquired by Novartis (Ticker: NVS) for $218 in cash. I have a good size position in Avexis via common stock and short puts. I did get a bit overboard and the size of the position went past my comfort zone. I plan on tendering the common and letting the short Puts expire. This was one of those situations where I liked the odds and went pretty much all in. I’m hopeful the tender closes on May14th.

I’m hoping to see a few more pharma / biotech tender plays. It’s really been an interesting year as the majority of my gains this year were derived from merger arb plays. My goal is to focus on high probability merger plays and hoping to avoid any Rite-Aid like disasters (which I had the pleasure of experiencing last year). So I’m basically taking things slow and steady…


2018 Performance = +7.89% with the running monthly returns as follows:

January +2.80%
February +2.82%
March -0.03%
April +2.10%

11 Comments:

At May 03, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,

I noticed you still haven't indicated a position in MON. The price has dipped to $124.75 which gives a greater that 2.5% return. Can I infer that you do not have enough confidence in the deal to take a position?

Your opinion is valued and appreciated.

 
At May 03, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I do like MON here. A good chunk of my buying power has been allocated in AVXS. We’ll see, I may make some adjustments to free up some buying power.

 
At May 09, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,

A remember a couple years ago you were in Regeneron (Ticker: REGN) which you sold in January 2016 in order to raise cash for a different idea.

I have kept it on my watch list and now I noticed that it has come down substantially since then. It is now under $285, while about 1/2 year ago it was over $500.

Do you have an opinion of whether its a good buy at this price?

Thank You

 
At May 10, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

REGN: I currently do not have a position, but have also been keeping an eye on it. Sales have been disappointing for their new products: Dupixent for eczema and Praluent for lowering cholesterol. The stock represents good value here, but will require some time to turn things around.

 
At May 10, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

STZ: recent weakness after strong earnings is normal?
Thanks

 
At May 10, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

STZ: Molson Coors (TAP) had an awful report, which dragged down the entire sector. I believe STZ is doing just fine as they gave no indication of any weakness from their earnings report.

 
At May 11, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is MON still waiting for - US and Europe already approved, right?
Saw they got approved by Turkey today - yippee!

 
At May 11, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

MON: Still waiting for US approval.

 
At May 15, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like AVXS tender closed... what's next?

 
At May 15, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MON?
Current Price $125
Take over Price $128
Potential profit $3 = 2.4%
Expected Time frame?

 
At May 15, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

MON: I would model best case US approval with end of May close with a base case for end of June close.

 

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