Sunday, July 21, 2013

Mid Year Performance

I  guess it’s time to review my mid-year performance. So far I’ve been pleased with the performance as my portfolio has generated a return of 19.29% from January to June. July is looking promising with a return of +2.96% as of July 20th. Here are my returns on a monthly basis:

January -0.30%
February +4.67%
March +5.03%
April +5.13%
May +5.13%
June -0.37%

This year, I’ve been more disciplined in terms of cutting my losses when a trade does not work out. For example, I recently sold out my position in MoneyGram International generating a net loss of 11.13%. Like I mentioned before, once a position hits a 10% loss I will start to sell out a position. One can always re-enter a position, but you don’t want to let a losing position get away from you. I've also been more careful with position sizing to minimize potential blow ups that can vaporize ones gains.

I may write about my merger arb / special situation trades, but I do buy and hold companies for the long term such as VISA Inc., which I purchased in the IPO and plan on keeping it for a long long time.

My largest position is currently Constellation Brands, which I entered as a special situations play when it acquired assets from Anheuser Bush InBev in its acquisition of Grupo Modelo S.A.B. As I learned more about the biz and the potential earnings power, I gained a strong conviction and plan on hanging onto Constellation Brands for at least the next few years. Looking out 3 years, this company has the ability to generate ~ $1 billion in annual free cash flow. For a company of this size, this is serious cash generation.

I guess that's it for now. Hopefully, the second half of the year will produce decent returns so we’ll see…

Friday, July 12, 2013

More Money Gram and Back in Onyx Pharmaceuticals

I added to my position in Money Gram International  (Ticker: MGI) yesterday at $22.91. I also bought back my position in Onyx Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: ONXX) today at $132.63. These are starter positions (~ 5% of my portfolio) as I wait to see what develops. Other than that not much going on…

Tuesday, July 09, 2013

Sold Onyx and Nibbled on Money Gram

I sold my position in Onyx Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: ONXX) today at $134.79 generating a net gain of 2.98% over a 9 day period (~ 119% annualized return). It’s still very early in the game with this auction process so I believe there may be a more opportune times to get into the position.

I initiated a small position in Money Gram International (Ticker: MGI) at $23.00. It looks like this buyout is progressing and should hear in a few weeks regarding a potential deal. This one has both strategic and private equity players looking at the company.

As in poker, I'm playing very tight right now...

Monday, July 08, 2013

Sold Optimer Pharmaceuticals

I sold my position in Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Ticker: OPTR) this morning at $15.33 generating a net gain of 1.79%. I still have an overall net loss in Optimer Pharmaceuticals of ~ 10% after this sale. I didn’t play this one well as I got shaken out too early. I have to learn to be more patient with some of the special situation plays. In any case, it looks like we still have t’ill the end of the month before we know how this will unfold.

Wednesday, July 03, 2013

Optimer Pharmaceuticals Again

I’m back in Optimer Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: OPTR) today at $15.05. It looks like the bidding process is continuing with Cubist Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: CBST), Astellas Pharma, and Salix Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: SLXP) in the mix. I got shaken out when the stock was in a steady decline resulting in a ~ 11% loss. Anyways, we’ll see soon…

Monday, July 01, 2013

Some Onyx Pharmaceuticals

I initiated a starter position (making up ~ 6% of my portfolio) today in Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Ticker: ONXX) at $130.81. It looks like all the big players (Amgen  (Ticker: AMGN), Novartis (Ticker: NVS), Pfizer (Ticker: PFE), etc...) are all over this one. Onyx has always been looking to sell itself and the move by Amgen has put the company in play. This one is going to be fun to watch…