Metsera CVR Play

I picked up some Metsera yesterday at an average price of $70.18. This company was a target of a bidding war between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk. Pfizer prevailed with an offer of $65.60 in cash plus a CVR worth up to $20.65 per share. The first milestone CVR payout is $4.60 for the initiation of a phase 3 trial of MET-097i plus MET-233i by the end of 2027, which is pretty much a given. The next CVR milestones payouts (totaling $16.05) are based on two separate FDA approvals, which is questionable. The way I look at this, I’m essentially getting a free play on the potential FDA approval payout. I like these kind of special situation plays.

October 2025 Report

This year has been one of my most challenging years as the market is running circles around me. I have been able to make some progress in the last three months with the portfolio up ~ 3.35% for the year. Not great as it is underperforming the S&P 500, but it is trending in a positive direction. Apple, Mastercard and Visa have come back to life whereas Constellation Brands is left for dead. Cash position remains a healthy ~ 10.5% as I continue to look for opportunities.

One thing that I reflect on is that as one gets older, your risk tolerance naturally becomes lower. It comes from experiences from my earlier days in which I almost blew up my account several times. Now, I cannot afford to take this kind of risk and start over.

 

I am looking to gradually reduce some of my concentrated positions and reallocate into a market index such as the S&P 500 and / or Nasdaq 100.

 

 

2025 Performance = +3.35% with the running monthly returns as follows:
 
January - 2.61%
February + 2.79%
March – 4.16%
April - 1.67%
May + 0.07%
June - 0.96%
July + 0.31%
August +5.57%
September +1.50%

October +2.84%

September 2025 Report

I’m finally back in the green with a whopping +0.50% gain for the year. It’s a hard game when you see the S&P 500 up ~ 18% and just running circles around you. I’m trying to be disciplined and not chase things at these levels. I’m still raising cash and just want to see how things evolve. I’m still holding tight on my core positions (Apple, Visa, Mastercard and Constellation Brands). Constellation Brands is a tough one to hold with what’s going on, but I just see this as a temporary blip.
 
At this point in my life, I’m just looking at the preservation of capital and not looking for any crazy outsized returns like my earlier days. Once you get to a certain point, you just want to start to derisk and not let a black swan event take you down.
 
 
2025 Performance = +0.50% with the running monthly returns as follows:
 
January - 2.61%
February + 2.79%
March – 4.16%
April - 1.67%
May + 0.07%
June - 0.96%
July + 0.31%
August +5.57%
September +1.50%

August 2025 Report

August was a strong month with Apple rallying ~ 11% after the tariff resolution. This had a positive impact with my portfolio, but I’m still negative ~ 1% for the year. With Apple, you just have to hold on for the ride. The stickiness of the Apple ecosystem is really unbelievable. I really don’t know what will take for me to leave the Apple ecosystem. It’s almost like a utility company in which everyone just simply needs it.

I’m still messing with naked short options but getting more cautious as we head into the seasonally volatile period. The dangers of naked shorts can be seen in Apple’s recent rally, which caught many people off guard. I was considering initiating short calls on Apple right before the rally, which would have generated some hefty losses. I’ll continue to play this game but will size my positions much smaller. I’ll reduce the use of margin buying power from ~ 80% to ??? (it’ll definitely be smaller).

Let’s see if I can end the year in the green…

 
2025 Performance = - 0.99% with the running monthly returns as follows:
 
January - 2.61%
February + 2.79%
March – 4.16%
April - 1.67%
May + 0.07%
June - 0.96%
July + 0.31%
August +5.57%

July 2025 Report

The market remains challenging unless you are invested in the mega cap tech companies. I managed to squeeze out a small gain for July, but I am still down for the year. I’m still maintaining a cash position of 11% and plan to continue to increase it overtime. At this stage of my life, preservation of capital and income generation has become a top priority.

As I review my stagnant portfolio, I like to focus of the Yield on Cost (YOC). This really shows the power of dividend compounding overtime. I’ve been plowing all of the dividends back into stock repurchase. At some point, I’ll stop reinvesting the dividends and just live off of it.

Here’s a current view of my portfolio’s Yield on Cost:
 

Company	Yield on Cost
Apple	4.86%
Visa	7.39%
Constellation Brands	6.06%
Mastercard	5.94%
Qiagen	5.05%

 
 
2025 Performance = - 6.21% with the running monthly returns as follows:
 
January - 2.61%
February + 2.79%
March – 4.16%
April - 1.67%
May + 0.07%
June - 0.96%
July + 0.31%

June 2025 Report

I totally forgot about posting my dreadful June performance as I was away on vacation. June generated a decline of -0.96%, which was attributed to a decline in Visa, Mastercard and Constellation Brands. Apple did appreciate by ~ 2%, but it was not enough to carry the portfolio into the positive territory. I continue to build the cash position (now ~ 11%) by aggressively selling options. In my younger years, I used to say to myself that cash was trash and was often maxed out on margin. Now I value how cash can bring stability to a portfolio, especially with cash yielding ~ 4%.

Nice to see that Blueprint Medicines closed according to plan. I didn't go big, just a relatively small position to get back into the M&A game. I used to be very aggressive with M&A plays until there was a fundamental change in FTC leadership. Now with the new administration, it looks like regulatory risk is diminished and back to normal. 

Earnings season is around the corner and looking forward to see how the market reacts…
 

2025 Performance = - 6.5% with the running monthly returns as follows:
 
January - 2.61%
February + 2.79%
March – 4.16%
April -1.67%
May +0.07%
June -0.96%

Sarepta Therapeutics - Just Wow

This Sarepta news is simply mind blowing. Just when you thought it was all clear with a “black box” warning for its gene therapy product Elevidys and a massive restructuring, everything hits the fan. A third patient death was just revealed, and now the FDA is instructing the company to halt shipment of Elividys and they are refusing the order. I do not see how the company gets out of this one.

I have been tempted many times to dabble into an option position in Sarepta with its high premiums, but news like this will simply destroy you if you are on the wrong side. It seems like black swan events are an everyday day occurence with this company.

Blueprint Medicines Merger Arb

Back in the merger arb game by picking up some Blueprint Medicines (~ 7% position), which is being acquired by Sanofi for $129 in cash plus a cvr of up to $6.00. The stock is currently trading at ~ $127.79, which gives you an annualized returnn of 5 – 6%. Not great in terms of annualized return, but I am playing this for the free cvr. I’m modeling this deal to close at the end of July. I don’t see any regulatory issues.

Regulatory / Closing Timeline (updated based on the tender offer filing):

1) US - HSR filed on 6/9, waiting period expires on 7/9

2) Australian Federal Cartel Act filed on 6/10, waiting period expires by 7/8

3) Germany Federal Cartel Office filed on 6/10, clearance by 7/10.

4) Italy filed for foreign notification on 6/9 with an anticipated review within 45 days.

5) Tender Offer expires on 7/16.