Metsera CVR Play

I picked up some Metsera yesterday at an average price of $70.18. This company was a target of a bidding war between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk. Pfizer prevailed with an offer of $65.60 in cash plus a CVR worth up to $20.65 per share. The first milestone CVR payout is $4.60 for the initiation of a phase 3 trial of MET-097i plus MET-233i by the end of 2027, which is pretty much a given. The next CVR milestones payouts (totaling $16.05) are based on two separate FDA approvals, which is questionable. The way I look at this, I’m essentially getting a free play on the potential FDA approval payout. I like these kind of special situation plays.

October 2025 Report

This year has been one of my most challenging years as the market is running circles around me. I have been able to make some progress in the last three months with the portfolio up ~ 3.35% for the year. Not great as it is underperforming the S&P 500, but it is trending in a positive direction. Apple, Mastercard and Visa have come back to life whereas Constellation Brands is left for dead. Cash position remains a healthy ~ 10.5% as I continue to look for opportunities.

One thing that I reflect on is that as one gets older, your risk tolerance naturally becomes lower. It comes from experiences from my earlier days in which I almost blew up my account several times. Now, I cannot afford to take this kind of risk and start over.

 

I am looking to gradually reduce some of my concentrated positions and reallocate into a market index such as the S&P 500 and / or Nasdaq 100.

 

 

2025 Performance = +3.35% with the running monthly returns as follows:
 
January - 2.61%
February + 2.79%
March – 4.16%
April - 1.67%
May + 0.07%
June - 0.96%
July + 0.31%
August +5.57%
September +1.50%

October +2.84%