Sunday, March 01, 2020

February 2020 Performance


I guess I was wrong when I said that this bug would be a minor annoyance! The market sold off hard in a quick manner, but I still don’t see value except for the energy sector. We’re essentially back to the beginning of the year although there are some stocks that got hit big. For example, Constellation Brands sold off because of the name “Corona”? Are you serious? I’m glad the company came out and stated that their beer sales continue to grow during this period. Also, the company will be hosting an analyst meeting this Wednesday and hopefully they will provide further clarity. The company better be in the market buying back their shares during this sell off. If I didn’t have such a large position in Constellation Brands, I would have picked up a few more shares.

I continue to be patient and have not bought any stock (yet) during this correction. So, we’ll see how things shake out…

2020 YTD Performance = -4.28% with the running monthly returns as follows:

January +2.7%
February -6.8%


35 Comments:

At March 03, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

QGEN: awesome, do you see a higher bid. Why does it take more than a year to close the deal?

 
At March 03, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I personally think that they are getting taken out on the cheap. I do see a potential for a higher bid. I'm surprised with the long closing time frame as well. I'm sure the regulators (US and other countries) will take a good look at this deal.

 
At March 03, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did you cash out or you gonna wait till it ends?
Thanks

 
At March 03, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I’m holding for now…

 
At March 07, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

FTSV: good arb play?

 
At March 08, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I was looking art FTSV as well. I think it has a very good chance of closing. The FTC takes a much closer look in the clinical development pipeline these days so there's some elevated risk with biotech arb plays.

 
At March 11, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MT,

It's 2020 and we have the best technology minds in the world. Is it possible to develop a real time / instant / on the spot COVID-19 virus test for individuals displaying symptoms?


Thanks

 
At March 11, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

The Qiagen detection kit for the COVID-19 can produce results in ~ 1 hour, which is probably the best you can do right now. You have to take into account that a hospital needs to ship the patient sample to a diagnostic company such as Quest. At Quest they will use the Qiagen kits / platform to perform the test. All of this will take a few days from obtaining the sample to final results.

With these molecular test methods, it takes time to extract and amplify the sample to perform the test. I do believe that one day we will have a real time on the spot test, but unfortunately not right now.

 
At March 11, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don’t you think V and MA take a hit, since so much closures are happening?

 
At March 11, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

V & MA will definitely take a hit as cross border activities grind to a halt.

 
At March 12, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All,

COVID-19 has pretty much invoked a USA supply and demand shock to our economy for a short period of time. We have never experienced a supply and demand shock before. This event will be much different than the 2008-2009 financial crisis which was wall street induced. General consensus among stock market Pro's is we are headed for a -30% correction from the recent peak. Why so low? Because thats where the BIG buyers plan to jump in with both hands.

Think: Revisting the December 2018 SPY lows and then recovering from there. V shape bottom? Hockey stick shape bottom? or U shape bottom? The Pro's believe a U shape bottom as this unique event will take some time to repair and restore investor confidence.

The math:
Keep in mind when the market declines -30%, in order to recover to break even (peak) one has to increase +45%.
Not meant to scare, just to inform on what potentially is to come.

Best of luck to everyone.

 
At March 12, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cleveland clinic has found a test kit which checks within 2-3 hours.
At least people have jobs compared to financial crisis

 
At March 12, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon,

Good ole Cleveland Clinic. That is great news. Are they working with a particular company or charity to develop and produce? Yes 2009-2009 is big difference. The pent up demand that accumulates to some extent while people hunker down will be great once this passes.

 
At March 12, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

There are plenty of test kits out there on the market. The issue is the run on RNA purification kits that you need to process the samples. Without these RNA purification kits, these test kits are useless. Qiagen and Roche are both ramping up production for these purification kits.

 
At March 12, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MT,

It's not about the test kits in general as we know the production is ramping up. Its about providing fast test results, like on the spot real time results which you mentioned did not exist.

The poster from above should clarify what they know about the Cleveland Clinic discovery. They stated 2-3 hours. It sounds like it is slightly slower the Qiagen detection kit.

As an FYI, last evening CNBC TV news reported that JetBlue airlines had a plane from NY to FL with a passenger who tested positive for COVID-19. The kicker is the passenger learned via email while flying from NY to FL that their test results was positve. Shame on that person for putting others at potential risk. If we had an on the spot / real time test rsults, we could defend against this stupidity.

We realize that on the spot / real time tests results could take the labs out of the picture. During an epidemic like this we are OK with that.

 
At March 12, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

The hospitals can certainly obtain the equipment and kits to perform the test internally. This will generate timely results, but it comes with additional cost for the hospitals (equipment, training, additional staff, etc...).

 
At March 13, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey MT,

Is QGEN a safe bet at $40 before the tender date is announced?

Do you see a higher bidder coming in?

thnx

 
At March 13, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's funny how supply and demand works. QGEN should be a quick safe trade.

If this news is true for Qiagen:

Some of the testing components are manufactured by Qiagen, a multinational leader in molecular testing headquartered in Germany. Spiking demand for its products has prompted the company to increase production to three shifts a day, seven days a week, at plants in Germany and Spain. "This now is an unprecedented situation," said Qiagen corporate spokesman Thomas Theuringer. "Demand is exploding,


 
At March 13, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

QGEN: offer expires next year.

MT: how do you stay calm during this time with the market going nuts? Do you buy more or sell to protect the gains?
Thanks

 
At March 13, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I've experienced the 2000 / 2008 - 2009 market corrections and you learn from those. Take a step back and try to be rational. I started nibbling yesterday. I’m in for the long term so I will not sell unless I see something fundamentally wrong with the company or valuations really get really out of hand. You need to have some cash on the sideline, which helps to buffer market declines and to take advantage of opportunities.

 
At March 13, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"KEEP AMERICA HEALTHY" Thank You President Trump + VP Pence For Your LEADERSHIP
We Love You, We Love America

We Are BULLISH Again

 
At March 13, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MT,
What did u nibble on? I ended up buying some ZTS,V and AAPL.

 
At March 13, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

QGEN: This deal will go through an in depth antitrust review (likely a second request), but it should eventually be approved. Another bidder is possible... I'll like to read the merger docs to see how this played out with the different parties.

 
At March 14, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I added to my Visa position.

 
At March 14, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MT,

Whats the back story on GILD? It seems to be stuck in a narrow long term price range. I read alot about their drug remdesiver could be promising for critical coronavirus patients in multiple countries. It seems like the market offers no respect. Are they in some type of dispute with China or other?

 
At March 14, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I really haven't followed GILD closely. From what I've read, the efficacy of remdesiver for the treatment of COVID-19 is questionable. They need to present conclusive clinical data to support the effectiveness of the drug for the COVID-19 patients.

 
At March 15, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MT,

Here is one of many stories about GILD remdesivir helping severe COVID-19 virus patients in USA, China, Japan, Greece (US cruise ship passengers). You decide.


Did an experimental drug help a U.S. coronavirus patient?

By Jon CohenMar. 13, 2020 , 1:30 PM

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/did-experimental-drug-help-us-coronavirus-patient


Thank You.

 
At March 15, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All,

We like biological video's. You will to.


Experimental Drug Helps Some Americans Ride Out Coronavirus, NIH Doctor Says
Antiviral drug remdesivir appeared to have an effect in American cruise passengers treated in Japan, although data are limited

https://www.wsj.com/articles/experimental-drug-helps-some-americans-ride-out-coronavirus-nih-doctor-says-11584094955?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f


Thanks


 
At March 15, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

There are several clinical trials on the way to determine the effectiveness of remdesivir. Take a look a clincaltrials.gov and you'll see lots of ongoing trials on remdesivir. Some of these trials are targeting completion by mid year so hopefully we'll get some good news soon.

 
At March 16, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is a recent study out of Nebraska

Tuesday, February 25, 2020
NIH clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins
Study enrolling hospitalized adults with COVID-19 in Nebraska.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

 
At March 18, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MT,

I have heard of bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites. Should malaria be included in this group.

What can you tell us about Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug?

Some success using for coronavirus illnesses in foreign countries.

So confusing all of this biological stuff.


Thnkx

 
At March 19, 2020, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MT,

Is your head spinning yet? President Trump is turning the FDA from a turtle (no pun intended) into a hare. By tackling various regulations that have hampered the FDA for decades, this emergency has removed the shackles and allowed various existing and potential new drugs to enter into trials for testing at record speed. Do not overlook the Compassionate Use order that the President implemented last year. This is a net net positive for our country and the world.


"We Trust In Trump".

 
At March 20, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I don't know much about Chloroquine other than what's been reported in the news.

I agree... I do think that there is too much red tape with the FDA. A lot of their policies make no sense.

 
At March 24, 2020, Anonymous mergerpie said...

merger spreads exploded. MT did u nibble on some of the deals?

 
At March 25, 2020, Blogger Money Turtle said...

No, I didn't pick up any deals yet.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home