Some Rite Aid
Maybe the third time is a charm… My first two attempts in playing Rite Aid (Ticker: RAD) resulted in losses. Today, I re-entered Rite Aid based on the press release from Walgreens (Ticker: WBA), which indicated that it is making progress on the divestitures to seal the deal with the anti-trust regulators. I liked the tone of the press release in reading between the lines. I currently have a ~ 23% position in Rite Aid with an average price of $8.21 (~ 30% annualized return assuming a close by 12/30).
posted by Money Turtle @ 3:29 PM
26 comments
26 Comments:
Nice to follow your analysis on this one.
You look at SZMK - small situation, but seems like there is a 10-15% holder looking for a higher buyout price. Seems like company is being acquired cheap (4x EBITDA), but i'm not particularly close to it.
Thanks, I'll take a look at it...
Hi MT,
There seems to be some weakness in the price of RAD. Is this something to be concerned about? It is trading at a pretty large discount for a takeover which seems to have a very high probability of completion.At $8 this translates to a 12.5% return in just 3 1/2 months. Any idea why the market would be pricing this so low?
Thanks
Hi MT,
Have you seen TBRA? Looks like a complicated deal. May present opportunities.
As always, your insights would be appreciated.
Thanks
RAD - Probably a case of deal fatigue. It's almost a year now. Just need to be patient on this one.
TBRA - I saw TBRA and am also trying to see how to play it. Need to do some more work on it...
Any interest in the purported $CAB buyout?
Thanks.
CAB - I would say best case scenario is a mid $50 price. Maybe worth a small wager...
LNKD get approval, we can see a close very soon, when? very good enter now to 193.10
Microsoft (MSFT) said to get U.S. antitrust approval for LinkedIn (LNKD) deal - Bloomberg
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) said to get U.S. antitrust approval for LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD) deal, according to Bloomberg, citing MLex.
Thanks for the LNKD news...
they are just playing what is this MLEX? now they said EU approval may see difficulties... just speculation, why EU approval should stop.. just jitters?
Hi MT,
When do you think LNKD will close?
Also, can you give us you current assessment of MHGC and VA?
Thanks
MLEX Market Insight focuses on regulatory issues. I would model a year end close for LNKD. EU can really drag this thing out... Just keeping an eye on it for now.
MHGC - So much moving pieces, hard to figure out what's going on. Bidder V dragging their foot. Company going to start discussion on refinancing debt. Looking at least another month to see if this deal can close. Not playing it...
VA - I've started building a position.
A similar case for LNKD might be Facebook-Whatsapp merger (See the EU approval statement for the merger-http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1088_en.htm). There should be little regulatory concerns except for the length of time needed for review as this is a big transaction.
Spokesperson from EC's Competition Branch Declines Comment Following Report Microsoft/LinkedIn Deal Could See Complications Getting EU Approval; Highlights Cos. Have Not Yet Submitted Notification to Commission
The Commission's Ricardo Cardoso suggested referring to a site which publishes all merger-related notifications (http://ec.europa.eu/competition/elojade/isef/index.cfm?fuseaction=dsp_merger_by_date). > BZ NOTE: The initial report from MLex Market Insight did not specify which regulator could create the "complications" or whether the potential issues have already been recognized by a European regulator.
LNKD it's a love story... a war of rumors ha ha
they just moved the market on LNKD, speculation with such headlines...
hope some big fund will support the stock and will build a position hear at 192/192.3 after we have seen 193 without any news.
Jitters!
This from Brifing.com:
"RAD -2.1% (NY Post reports tepid PE interest in some 650 stores Walgreens is looking to divest to get a deal done)"
RAD is down .35 to $7.72, is the deal in jeopardy? Or is this a buying opportunity?
I got stopped out of RAD once again. It hit my stop loss.
https://bnlfinance.com/2016/09/29/rad-stock-falls-another-4-ahead-of-an-inevitable-rite-aid-walgreens-merger/
LNKD deal cleared in US, Canada, Brazil etc etc... Saleforce that lost the bid... as EU to raise issue about the deal. What do you think? how much delay for EU? 25 days? 2 months? or what? can you estimate an exact date?
Note that since MS has not officially notified EU yet, we do not have an exact timeline but my guess is that MS will file promptly now that it had gotten the other regulatory clearances. Clearly MS knows that EU will be the toughest hurdle.
EU simple notification is 25 days extendable to 35 days. If there is a need for more information, then the investigation may stretch up to 125 days but i foresee it is unlikely.
The WhatsApp merger took about 4-5 months so i think we can model the MS-LNKD merger with about the same timeline.
Opening up the data access is no issue to MS. MS wants LNKD to plugin as another important component to its Dynamics 365 and Office 365. Imagine streamlessly pulling in potential customer data from linkedin to Dynamics and shooting off emails and followups with office 365. MS is betting that other competitors will be unable to match the whole packaged experience that MS can provide with the LNKD acquisition.
I want to enter in LXK do you see risks? today of 14% seem done....
what do you think? estimated close date now?
LNKD: I agree that there shouldn't be any issues with EU approval, but you never know (they dragged out the Oracle / Sun Microsystems deal for no good reason).
LXK: Have been following, but they are guiding for a year end close. It looks like this just need SAFE approval to transfer the cash.
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