GCVRZ Dutch Tender Offer by Sanofi

Sanofi (Ticker: SNY) just announced a modified Dutch tender offer for 30% of the CVRs (Ticker: GCVRZ) with a price range of $1.50 to $1.75 expiring on October 5th. The CVR was created as part of the Genzyme acquisition. The CVRs have not made any milestone payments to date, but the payments may be coming soon with the possibility of FDA approval early next year. The potential payouts are as follows:

$1 for FDA approval of Lemtrada
$2 for $400 million in sales of Lemtrada
$3 for $1.8 billion in sales of Lemtrada
$4 for $2.3 billion in sales of Lemtrada
$3 for $3 billion in sales of Lemtrada

I still own the CVRs from the Genzyme acquisition and will not be tendering any of my CVRs. I believe the first two milestones can be achieved. The only reason Sanofi is buying back the CVRs is that they believe certain milestones will likely be achieved. If the first milestone (FDA approval) is not achieved, then the CVRs are essentially worthless.