Genzyme and Sanofi-Aventis (The Next Move)

The next crucial date on the Genzyme (Ticker: GENZ)/ Sanofi-Aventis (Ticker: SNY) saga will be November 28, which is the date that Genzyme has to complete the move of its fill / finish operation for Cerezyme, Fabrazyme and Thyrogen out of their Allston manufacturing plant. If Genzyme does not meet this deadline, then the FDA can require the company to cough up 18.5% of revenue from these products. Sanofi is not going to make any move until it is clear that Genzyme is resolving its manufacturing issues and meeting the November 28 deadline will be a crucial test. I’m expecting Sanofi to do something around this time. Sanofi can increase the tender offer price, but must do so 10 business days before the expiration of the tender offer (the current tender offer expires on December 10). If Sanofi wants to increase the tender offer price, they have to do it by November 29. Many are speculating that Sanofi will simply extend the tender offer to buy additional time. In any case, I’ve continued to add to my Genzyme position.