Saturday, March 24, 2007

Poor Amgen

I don't like to catch a falling knife, but you just have to ask how much more can Amgen fall? I don't remember a company releasing so much bad news one after another:

(1) Not filing for an expanded indication of Sensipar
(2) Black box warnings on EPO drugs
(3) Stopping a Phase III trial of Vectibix with Avastin due to a lack of efficacy and toxicity concerns.

All is not lost in Vectibix, there are still several clinical trials underway. The following was published in the (March 23rd edition of BioWorld): Christopher Raymond, with Robert Baird & Co. wrote in a research note that Vectibix "has potential for strong uptake" in second- and third-line settings," though the PACCE data might delay the drug's off-label use in first-line therapy. That setback prompted him to adjust revenue estimates for Vectibix, now projecting that sales won't hit $1 billion until 2010.

At this price, it's worth to nibble a bit. The stock didn't decline too much on the Vectibix news. It looks to me that just about every single bit of bad news has been factored into this stock, but didn't I say this last time as well!? I'm looking for the day that the stock goes up on bad news; that will signal the bottom.

2 Comments:

At March 25, 2007, Blogger z-stock said...

MONEY T
.....about AMGN...
I hope it finds support at the 38% fibronnaci retracement number....
87 minus 38% = 54.....
Or Jan 2005 low 56....

I think you have it just about right...Better to wait ...for an up day on bad news...

 
At May 03, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why the heck would you want a stock with so much possible problems.....why be a hero....as sharer said, they are making the low end of estimates.......but by cutting expenses......not by growth. Also its too long before denosunab comes to fruition.....if it does at all.....same goes for "pipeline"...other stocks to slay.....in my opinion.

 

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