January 2019 Performance
January started out as a bust for me, but for some reason or another came back nicely to finish off the month. The month started with the Apple earnings warning, which was the shot heard around the world. Then a few days later, Constellation Brands reported disappointing earnings and guidance, which sank the stock. I have decent positions in both of these stocks so I definitely felt the pain. I actually added to the Constellation Brands position during the selloff. Sometimes, it’s best to buy when you feel sick to your stomach. In any case, both Apple and Constellation Brands ended up nicely for January. All my other long positions (Alibaba, Mastercard, Qiagen and Visa) performed well in January. Sanofi was the only negative performer.
I’m currently involved in two arb plays: Tesaro and Loxo
Oncology. Tesaro was acquired by GlaxoSmithKline for $75 per share in cash. I played this
via long stock and short puts. Tesaro recently closed and the short put options
were accelerated to February expiration. I also played Loxo Oncology, which is being
acquired by Eli Lilly for $135 per share in cash via short puts and this is
moving smoothly toward a mid-February close. I was fairly aggressive in both of
these merger plays because they were both structured as tender offers and did not
anticipate any antitrust issues, which equates to a fast closing.
I have to learn to just sit tight and wait for the right
opportunities to show up. Last year, I found myself forcing some bad trades
because I felt I had to be in the market.This game is a constant learning experience...
2019 Performance = +7.4% with the running monthly returns as
follows:
January +7.4%
January +7.4%
12 Comments:
What are your thoughts on RHT - looks like this will close.
I do see RHT closing, but it'll be a long wait. They are guiding for the second half of 2019 to close this deal. I may get involved as we get closer to closing, but not now.
I was following you all the past 2 years. I usually invest aggressively with 100% in 1 stock I did great results, around 120-130% since 2011-2017 unfortunately the MGI drop due to fxxckin trump destroyed my trend and I lost 40-45% in one bad trade.
don't worry, but many times I have seen you yes too much involved with very doubt companies, and in some too much keeping private how good was to know that it were more safe tender offers y Bla Bla
I think would be better a collaboration in a small chat with 5-10 of us to filter ourself and select better opportunities and calm down who is going to be, may be, wrong. however I appreciated your talent but I feel your job is underestimated in a blog like this, should deserve more. how to contact you via email?
We've all had blow ups so I know how it feels. The merger arb game is definitely more challenging now with the increased regulatory scrutiny from agencies such as CFIUS. I do think it's a good idea to bounce ideas with one another.
You can always contact me: moneyturtle (at) gmail.com
LOXO: got paid yesterday. thank you
RHT: Berkshire got in it recently, safer small bet?
RHT: It looks likely a relatively safe play. Still a long ways to go...
ONCE: Hopefully deal gets announced on monday. This one should be all cash safe play closing in about 40 days. I have noticed usually the best time to buy is around 4/5 business day after deal is announced. Would you know why? If we keep getting this biotech deal once a month for year would be really really good.
ONCE: There should be a decent spread with this one. Just need to see the terms of the deal. Not sure why 4-5 days is best to buy with these buyout. I usually initiate a position on day 1 and just keep adding when the price dips.
ONCE: All the 110 puts (except march) got bid up 15c to 20c today with minimal stock movement.
I was able to sell sep 110p for .55 yesterday and today went to .8 to .85
ONCE: I've been selling the $110 Puts as well. This deal should be done in early April. Most tenders are completed within 45 days of announcement. I don't see any antitrust issues with this deal.
ONCE: June 110p were going to for .75 to.9
Sept 110 puts were going for .90 to .95
not sure why the premiums get bid up on 4th and 5 day
I do see this trend of Puts getting bid up with these types of situations. That's why I average into it.
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