Friday, March 30, 2018

March 2018 Performance

I managed to come out flat for March with a loss of -0.03%, which is not bad considering the S&P 500 was down ~ 3.1% for this period. I really did not do much in March except for letting the short Puts in Bioverativ and Juno Therapeutics expire. With the closing of Bioverativ and Juno Therapeutics, I do not have any open arb / special situation plays. The market volatility definitely helped to minimize any potential gains from my growth stocks. This market volatility is a traders dream, but unfortunately for me I am an awful trader. I’m staying committed to my game plan by focusing on long term growth stocks and generating additional returns from special situations plays.

Constellation Brands continues to be my largest position comprising ~ 35% of my portfolio. The company reported a nice earnings report yesterday. I was pleasantly surprised by the 42% hike in dividend to $0.74 per share / quarter ($2.96 per year) with a current yield of ~ 1.3%. I continue to believe there is more room to run with this stock as the company starts returning excess cash (share buybacks and dividend increases) to shareholders after completion of their brewery expansions.

Even with this market volatility, I still cannot find any bargains as valuation is still quite elevated. I continue to maintain a good cash cushion and patiently waiting for opportunities to develop…

2018 Performance = +5.65% with the running monthly returns as follows:

January +2.80%
February +2.82%
March -0.03%


At April 05, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,

Blue Horse likes VVC to be taken out by CNP in low to mid $70's very soon. Auction chatter.


At April 07, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

You mean Blue Horseshoe!? Thanks...

At April 09, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,

I am sure you have seen this:

News on Monsanto today:

"April 9 (Reuters) - German conglomerate Bayer AG's $62.5 billion bid to acquire U.S. seeds company Monsanto Co has won approval from the U.S. Justice Department, after the companies said they would sell off additional assets, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

The report said the department had reached an agreement in principle with the two companies in recent days, citing people familiar with the matter.

Bayer said in a statement it anticipated closing in the second quarter of 2018."

They claim it deal will be done before the end of June.

Do you feel this deal will most likely go through?

Do you think it would make senses to sell the puts on this now?


At April 09, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

MON: I'm surprised there still a decent premium with the Puts. I like the risk reward play with the MON short Puts here. The only approval remaining is the US so if US is a go, it's pretty much a done deal.

At April 09, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do you think the US approval is a shoe in? Do you foresee any possible issues with getting US approval?

At April 09, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...


"The companies still need some additional approvals, including from regulatory bodies in Canada and Mexico." per WSJ today

NAFTA partners, go figure.

At April 10, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

AVXS seems like a safe bet also?

At April 10, 2018, Anonymous mergerpie said...

Canada and Mexico will likely approve after DOJ's official approval... Russia probably end of apr / early may and India unknown

At April 10, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

MON: Sounds like US is a go ahead. I didn't realize it still needs Canada, Mexico and Russia. I don't think they really care about India.

AVXS: I initiated a position yesterday at ~ $105. I like this deal.

At April 10, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is time frame on AVXS. Also I think $105 is a typo. Thanks

At April 10, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I meant $205 and change. Wish it wasn’t a typo!

At April 10, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

AVXS: This deal is structured as a tender offer and should close quickly. Bioverativ took 47 days to close. I would model something similar for AVXS.

At April 13, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,

Do you have an opinion on the following deal?

Alexion (NASDAQ:ALXN) will acquire Wilson Therapeutics (STO:WTX) through a tender offer that was launched this morning at 7:00 a.m. CET/1:00 a.m. EDT whereby Alexion, through a wholly owned subsidiary, has offered SEK 232 in cash for each outstanding share of Wilson Therapeutics.
(Current price - 228)
. . .
The acquisition of Wilson Therapeutics requires approval of relevant regulatory authorities, and Alexion expects to obtain such approvals prior to the end of the acceptance period. The tender offer is expected to complete and the transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2018. Alexion intends to finance the acquisition through cash on hand.

At April 13, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I have not followed the buyout of Wilson Therapeutics by Alexion. Foreign tender offers can be tricky with potential tax consequences, etc... I usually stay away from those.

I'm just focused on AVXS at the moment. It's a very nice risk reward opportunity.

At April 16, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi MT,

AVXS identifies NVS as a competitor in its 10-K, and there are 2 out of 6 companies that are currently developing a treatment for spinal muscular atrophy (see the preview for this recently issued report on the market for SMA treatments).

Does this warrant a second request that would give the FTC more time to confirm that the deal wouldn't result in anti-competitive behavior?


At April 16, 2018, Blogger Money Turtle said...

Novartis' SMA candidate is still in early phase trials. I don't see any antitrust issues since these are just pipeline products, which may never make it to market. Biogen already has a marketed product so there is already competition. I would be shocked if there is a second request from the FTC. The antitrust authorities had no issues with Celegens's acquisition with JUNO even though Celgene had another CART partnership with BlueBird.

At April 17, 2018, Anonymous Anonymous said...

AVXS tender offer expires May 14. wow


Post a Comment

<< Home