More Keurig Green Mountain
I took off my position in Solera Holding (Ticker: SLH) and breaking even on the trade. Solera is currently marketing their loan, but just have to wonder how much the junk market can absorb in this market environment.
I did add to my position in Keurig Green Mountain (Ticker: GMCR) with an average price of $89.43 (currently ~25% of my portfolio). I see this as a relatively low risk arb play… Keurig has already placed their loan to fund the buyout and is waiting for HSR clearance & a rubber stamp shareholder vote. I expect HSR clearance next week (HSR expiration date is 2/18). I have modeled a close by 3/31 with a potential net gain of 2.88% (annualized return of 20.5%). There is a strong possibility that this deal may close at the end of this month.
posted by Money Turtle @ 1:22 PM
17 comments
17 Comments:
what do you think of the odds for RLD transaction to be completed?
I haven't done any work on RLD. There's a big spread there. Right now with any private equity backed deals, you're going to see a big spread until they place the debt. I can't put on any odds at this time until I do some work on it...
Hi MT,
I sold some LEAPS puts on GMCR, how does the expiration of leaps work with stocks getting bought for cash. Do they expedite early expiration to march?
Thanks
Assuming GMCR closes at the end of this month, they will accelerate all options expiration to March 18th.
Hi MT,
CNL moved up today on big volume. I did not see any news reports. Do you have any insights? Might it be time to get back in? Do you have an idea what the potential obstacles are, and when the deal should be completed?
Thanks
CNL - commission votes today to approve or reject. I have no edge on this one / not playing it...
Hi MT,
In only a few hours CNL has gone down dramatically. Does that mean the commission did not approve the deal?
Also, I have looked back at SLH, I can't figure out why it was trading above the buyout price for a little while. Anyhow, based on the pricing action it seems the market is optimistic that they will obtain funding. Do you agree? Do you think it will close soon?
Thanks
I believe the CNL vote will occur after market hours.
SLH - Looking like it will close soon. Europeans gave a thumbs down on the loan offering. Hearing that the US was more receptive...
Did you get back into SLH?
No, I'm no longer in SLH. I went in big on GMCR.
Commission just rejected the sale of CNL...
why ALR didn't reported the earnings 26th feb? the stock is going down dangerously.
Pepco deal blows up too... got to be wary of regulators these days... Cable battle will be one to watch
ALR recently received a subpoena from the SEC regarding their revenue recognition in Africa (makes up ~ 12% of ALR sales). I don't see this as a big deal...
I stay away from utility arb plays. The people making these decisions are too irrational.
not scaring so for ALR? something not to worry about? that's why they are delaying the press release for their earnings?
ALR: I don't think any updates to the earnings report will be material in regards to the merger.
Why did GMCR drop in price today? Is there a delay?
Pre-closing jitters? I added to my position during this dip.
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