Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Bad Analyst Call / Condo?

Yesterday an analyst from Bear Stearns downgraded Genzyme (GENZ) because of reimbursement concerns for Synvisc, which is used to treat osteoarthritis for the knee. The stock fell ~ 4.5% on this downgrade. This was definitely an over reaction by investors and simply an excuse to take profits. Synvisc makes up only ~8 % of total revenues so any reimbursement reduction would have a minimal impact on earnings. This morning Genzyme announced that the Medicare reimbursement rate for Synvisc would remain unchanged from the prior year. The stock recovered 1.8% on this news. This analyst basically blew the call and was simply wrong. Analysts are often lagging indicators; they usually upgrade a stock after it has made a huge increase or downgrade a stock after a steep decline. They follow the crowd and there's very little value added in their analysis. I enjoy reading analyst reports, but I do not make trading decisions based on their opinions. I just wish analyst would just own up to their mistakes...
Note: I have a position in Genzyme.

Ohh... I finally received the condo docs today! It must close to 100 pages a legal mumbo jumbo and I'm supposed to decipher it. Fortunately I know a lawyer, who deals with real estate law so I'll probably give her a call and hopefully help me decipher some of this stuff. So I have 10 days to decide. It's really a tough decision, real estate prices are falling and there are some good values starting to pop up. hmm... ???


At November 08, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I purchased my current house in Spring 2004 and at the time the pressure was interest rates rising.

I have noticed that a lot more inventory is hitting the market now, but when I look at the prices vrs what was available 1.5 years ago - they are still higher.

If the condo is in a good location, you can comfortably afford the cost, and the condo association is fiscally sound - go for it.

Trying to time a market almost never works (as I am sure you know from your stock investment).

At November 09, 2005, Blogger Money Turtle said...

I'm going to meet with the sales rep this weekend to clear up any questions I may have. As of this minute, I'm leaning towards it, but we'll see after the meeting.

At November 10, 2005, Blogger Money Turtle said...

Yep, I definitely plan to see a real estate lawyer. Thank's for the comments: Jane and MMB - It definitely helps in the decision process.


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