Sunday, March 06, 2005

Biogen Idec / Tysabri - not good

I've just finish reading this weeks issue of BioCentury and they had an excellent in depth write up on Biogen / Tysabri. Not many positives at all... For example, "... physicians contacted by BioCentury were unanimous in their reluctance to use the drug again - except perhaps in urgent salvage cases - unless it could be definitely shown that Tysabri monotherapy will not cause PML." Biogen's pipeline is rather thin with only a couple of Rituxan phase III studies (i.e. RA studies). According to BioCentury, Biogen Idec's three year revenue / EPS growth rate falls to a projected 9% for revenues and 15.9% for earnings. The company is currently trading at 23x this years earnings and 20x next years. This looks a bit expensive to me. Even if Tysabri comes back, it will not generate significant sales until the physicians become comfortable with the safety data and that could take several years. Now it's time to consider cutting my losses and move the cash to better uses. A position in Biogen Idec is dead money.


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