Thursday, January 27, 2005

Dead Cat Bounce?

I'm actually starting to get bullish. I went to a CANSLIM investors meeting yesterday and the majority of the people there were bearish. They all had very high cash positions. On CNBC, they talk about people not putting money into mutual funds. So looks like there's plenty of money sitting on the sidelines. This will be fuel to the markets. This just looks like a normal correction to me, we'll probably test the 200 day moving average and maybe even retest then head higher. I'm still 90%+ invested in this market.

All in all, the Q4 numbers look pretty good. Not many big blow ups except for eBay. People really liked JNJ's numbers. Amgen reported today and missed by 0.02... I'll have to take a closer look at that one. At first glance, Microsoft's numbers look good. I'm just waiting for the other companies in my portfolio to report before making any adjustments.

Summary on my current holdings:

  • Fisher Scientific (FSH) - continues to act very well after breaking out of a year long base. Waiting for Q4 numbers and additional accretive acquisitions.
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - reported nice earnings and chart looks great.
  • Genzyme (GENZ) - reported strong preliminary Q4 earnings and another good looking chart.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - waiting for Q4 earnings. Should be good since all other gaming stocks reported strong Q4 numbers.
  • Invitrogen (IVGN) - stated that they will beat Q4 estimates. Looking for more accretive acquisitions.
  • Biogen Idec (BIIB) - should report decent numbers. All eyes will be on the initial demand for their new MS drug (Tysabri).
  • CYTYC (CYTC) - looking for inline numbers. A steady grower. Will be interesting to see how this stock reacts when Merck files for their HPV vaccine at year end.
  • Qiagen (QGENF) - this is a play on the future of molecular diagnostics. They dominate their niche (DNA purification kits).
  • Pfizer (PFE) - I'm not too confident in this one. This is a weak hold right now.
  • Genentech (DNA) - strong steady grower. Maybe a bit expensive (P/E wise), but you have to pay up for growth (expected 30%+ EPS growth for the next few of years).
  • Microsoft (MSFT) - a strong hold. It's a big mature company, so I'm not expecting miracles - just slow steady growth with a growing dividend.
  • Boston Scientific (BSX) - A strong hold. Looks like JNJ finally has their stent production resolved. BSX is starting to lose some market share to JNJ. I like their acquisition of Advanced Bionics.


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